Opportunities in the Global E-Export Market and Potential Areas for Turkey

As e-export becomes the new norm for cross-border trade, the global market reached a value of 1245 billion USD in 2024 and is expected to reach 4574 billion USD by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.7%. This staggering growth holds countless untapped opportunities, especially for Turkish SMEs. So, what trends are prominent in this dynamic market, and how can Turkey benefit from these trends?

Prominent Trends and Sectors in Global E-Export

The key e-export trends shaping 2024 and 2025 are driven by technological advancements and changing consumer expectations.

• High-Tech Products: Driven by the demand for silicon chips fueled by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), high-tech exports grew by approximately 9% in 2024, outpacing general merchandise trade. While China continues to lead in this area, the USA and South Korea recorded the largest increases. Electric vehicles (EVs) also stand out as a booming sub-sector in this category.
• Consumer Electronics: Consumer electronics, especially mobile phones, constitute a massive market with a total trade volume of $2.7 trillion.
• Agricultural Products, Health and Wellness Products: With increasing global health consciousness, demand in these categories is also on the rise.
• Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Products and Apparel: These traditional categories continue to see strong international demand thanks to the convenience offered by e-commerce.
• Sustainable Apparel: With growing consumer environmental awareness, interest in apparel made from sustainable sources and produced under ethical conditions is exponentially increasing.
• Other High-Growth Potential Products: Specific products like lithium-ion batteries, solar modules, and semiconductor chips also hold a significant share in global trade.

Identifying and Evaluating Opportunities for Turkish Businesses

In light of these global trends, many potential areas emerge for Turkish businesses.

• Turkey's traditionally strong textile and ready-to-wear sector can significantly benefit from the "sustainable apparel" and general apparel export trends.
• Considering the global chip demand, Turkish SMEs can find opportunities in niche high-tech components, software, or accessories supporting these sectors. This requires evaluating B2B e-export opportunities within the high-tech supply chain, rather than just exporting end-consumer products. Complex supply chains involve numerous small components, specialized services, and software, and Turkish SMEs, known for their agility, can meet these niche demands.
• Turkey's strength in agricultural production directly aligns with the global demand for agricultural products.

Marketplaces accounting for 88.2% of cross-border e-commerce sales indicate that the fastest entry route to e-export for most Turkish SMEs is through these existing platforms. Instead of building international brand awareness and direct traffic from scratch, platforms like Amazon, Alibaba, and Etsy (especially for niche products like handicrafts) allow SMEs to initially focus on their products and supply processes. Trendyol's partnership with Alibaba also aims to boost the e-export of Turkish products.

Furthermore, global supply chain shifts such as "de-risking from China" and "supply chain realignments" present a strategic window of opportunity for Turkey. Thanks to its manufacturing capabilities and geographical proximity to Europe and the Middle East, Turkey is a significant candidate to benefit from this change. This translates into a competitive advantage, especially for Turkish e-exporters who can emphasize reliability, quality, and faster shipping to key Western markets.

The table below summarizes some prominent product categories in global e-export and Turkey's potential in these areas:

Trending E-Export Product Categories Globally in 2024-2025 and Turkey's Potential

Conclusion

The global e-export market, with its dynamic structure and continuously growing volume, offers significant opportunities for Turkish businesses. In this period where demand is increasing across a wide range from high technology to sustainable products, Turkey's combination of existing strengths and developing capabilities with the right strategies will enable it to secure a permanent place in the international market. Especially effective use of marketplaces and turning changes in the global supply chain into an advantage will play a key role in this journey.

Digital Transformation and New Regulations in Customs Clearance Processes

Customs clearance procedures in Turkey are evolving, starting with digitalization steps from the paper-based system with Customs Law No. 4458 enacted in 1999; integration with the "Single Window" circular in 2012; speed and security-focused conveniences with the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) status since 2021; and regulatory innovations supported by updated customs duty rates in the 2024–2025 period. In this article, we discuss historical milestones and recent updates.

Expansion of the “Single Window” System

According to the Ministry of Customs and Trade's 2024 Performance Program, the Single Window system is being extended to all land and railway customs administrations, managing all permits and approval documents through a single electronic platform. Thus, document checks have been accelerated by up to 40%, and waiting times in export and import processes have been significantly reduced.

• Land and Railway Directorates: More than 50 customs administrations were included in the first half of 2024.
• Document Tracking Module: Changes in customs status and tariff codes are updated in real-time.
• Cross-Institutional Integration: Certificates obtained from the ministries of agriculture, health, and transport have also been automatically integrated into the Single Window.

New Conveniences for AEO (Authorized Economic Operator) Status Holders

The AEO program, implemented since 2021, provides advantages such as priority processing, low collateral, and on-site customs clearance to reliable companies by granting them an "Authorized Economic Operator Certificate." Within the scope of the 2025 Performance Program, the on-site customs clearance authorities of AEO companies and declaration times will be further shortened with BİLGE integration.

• On-Site Customs Clearance: Allows completion of controls at the import site.
• BİLGE System Innovations: AEO transactions have been given special priority queuing.
• Risk-Based Inspections: AI-supported risk analysis automatically flags high-priority declarations.

Update of Customs Duty Rates on Some Products

With Decision No. 8724 of the Ministry of Treasury and Finance dated July 5, 2024, additional customs duty rates on items such as bags, leather products, and shoes were updated. The aim was stated as encouraging high value-added domestic production and reducing unfair import pressure.

• Bags and Leather Products: Additional customs duty (İGV) on imports was increased from 30% to 39%.
• Shoes: İGV was increased from 30% to 40%.
• Application Date: Reflected in all import transactions as of October 5, 2024.

Future Implications

• Efficiency Increase: Process times will be shortened by more than 40% with Single Window integration.
• Competitive Power: AEO advantages will reduce logistics costs and waiting times for Turkish-origin products.
• Digitalization-Focused Future: Blockchain and AI-supported risk analysis projects will become widespread in 2025.
• EU Harmonization Processes: Union Customs Code (UCC) harmonization studies will be completed in 2026, bringing electronic document exchange to European standards.

Breaking Points of the Supply Chain: From Historical Crises to Current Challenges

Supply chains, which have become more complex with globalization, have been repeatedly tested by historical crises and disruptions in recent years. From the 1973 Oil Crisis to the Suez Canal blockage in March 2021; from the semiconductor shortage caused by COVID-19 to the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War, events have shown how fragile the supply chain can be. In this article, we focus on both important past turning points and new challenges in the 2024-25 period, as well as implications for the future.

The 1973 Oil Crisis and the Effects of Energy Embargoes

The 1973 Oil Crisis erupted when OPEC members in the Middle East halted oil exports to the West. The quadrupling of prices severely increased both industrial production and transportation costs, paving the way for global economic recession.

Suez Canal Blockage (March 2021)

In March 2021, the grounding of the Ever Given ship closed the Suez Canal for six days. This event, which caused a delay of $9.6 billion worth of cargo per day, highlighted how critical maritime transport is and the importance of alternative route flexibility.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Semiconductor Shortage

Increased demand for electronics and automotive between 2020 and 2023, combined with production stoppages brought on by the pandemic, led to a semiconductor chip shortage. The automotive industry lost 20-30% of its monthly production capacity, and supply chain planning was completely reshaped.

Effects of the Russia-Ukraine War

The war, which began in February 2022, disrupted many supply lines, especially for agricultural products, energy, and critical minerals. This situation led to an increase in global food prices by up to 30% and strengthened inflationary pressures.

Increased Disruptions and Resilience Strategies in the First Half of 2024

• Cyber Attacks: Ransomware attacks targeting logistics firms caused delays of more than 48 hours at container terminals.
• Climate Events: Floods in Europe and extreme heat in Asia disrupted port infrastructure.
• Labor Market Pressures: Strikes by port workers and vehicle fleet contractions led to significant extensions in shipment times.

Future Implications

• Multi-Sourcing: Multiple suppliers and geographical distribution should be preferred for critical inputs.
• Digital Traceability: Real-time tracking with Blockchain and IoT offers rapid alternative planning in case of disruption.
• Resilience-Focused Design: Comprehensive mapping is essential to identify weak links in the supply chain.
• Sustainable Measures: Logistics methods that reduce carbon footprint mitigate disruptions caused by climate risk.

Milestones in the Sustainability Struggle and Reflections on 2025

Sustainability, since its definition in the 1987 Brundtland Report, has been at the center of the global agenda with its environmental, economic, and social dimensions. We are discussing the processes extending from the Paris Agreement to COP28; from the EU CSRD to the US Inflation Reduction Act, and the most important developments in the 2024–2025 period.

Historical Development

• 1987 – Brundtland Report: The concept of sustainable development, defined as “meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs,” first appeared in this report.
• 1997 – Kyoto Protocol: Developed countries committed to an average 5% greenhouse gas reduction between 2008–2012; emissions trading and compliance mechanisms came to the fore.
• 2015 – Paris Agreement: With the goal of keeping the global temperature increase to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period, all party countries were obliged to update their Nationally Determined Contributions.

Recent Significant Developments (2023–2025)

• COP28 (November 2023): At the summit held in Dubai, the term “fossil fuels” was included in the outcome document for the first time; progress was made in climate finance and loss and damage adaptation mechanisms.
• EU CSRD (January 2024): Approximately 50,000 large EU companies became obliged to report their environmental and social impact in detail and in electronic format.
• US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Updates (May 2025): Preservation of tax credits for clean energy investments and a phased withdrawal regulation were proposed.
• Circular Economy & Plastics Treaty: Led by the United Nations, negotiations for a plastic pollution treaty are targeted for completion by the end of 2024.

Looking to the Future

• Transparency and Accountability: Regulations like CSRD will make companies' sustainability performance measurable.
• The End of Fossil Fuels: The language clarified at COP28 indicates that fossil fuel use will be reduced and carbon markets will be strengthened.
• Circular Models: Waste reduction, recycling, and reuse strategies will play a central role in supply chains.
• Financial Incentives: Laws like the IRA and regional tax credits will accelerate the transition by reducing renewable energy costs.

The Evolution of Logistics Legislation in Turkey and the Roadmap to 2025

Turkey's legal framework in logistics and transportation has been shaped by many important regulations and updates, starting from 1987 to the present day. Most recently, amendments to the Road Transport Regulation came into force in May 2024, the ADR circular was renewed on September 3, 2024, and preparations for the Logistics Centers Regulation Draft and Law Proposal have been on the agenda since November 2023. In this article, we examine both historical developments and recent innovations.

Historical Development

• 1987 – First Road Transport Regulation: Turkey's first comprehensive regulation governing road transport was published.
• 2019 – Dangerous Goods Regulation: With the regulation that came into force on April 24, 2019, safety and training requirements for goods transported under ADR were renewed.
• 2021 – Logistics Centers Regulation Draft: The draft, opened for stakeholder opinion on November 22, 2023, determined the infrastructure, authorization, and operational principles of logistics bases.

1. Amendments to the Road Transport Regulation (May 31, 2024)

With regulation number 32562 published in the Official Gazette dated May 31, 2024:

• Authorization Certificate conditions: Criteria for obtaining, renewing, changing type, and transferring were updated.
• Vehicle Age and Use: Limits for owned, contract use, and maximum vehicle age were determined.
• International Transit Fees: Tariffs and document cancellation/renewal processes were clarified.

2. ADR Updates and Inspections (September 3, 2024)

With Circular No. 2024/2 of the General Directorate of Transport Services Regulation:

• Scope of Inspection: Quality and Safety Consultancy procedures were made mandatory.
• Plans and Instructions: Businesses were expected to prepare written safety plans by December 1, 2024.
• Training Requirements: Training periods for drivers and responsible personnel and document renewal requirements were detailed.

3. Logistics Centers and Law Proposal Preparations

• Logistics Centers Regulation Draft (November 2023): Published by the Ministry of Transport, stakeholder opinions were collected.
• TOBB Law Proposal: The Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (TOBB) Transport and Logistics Council is preparing a comprehensive Law Proposal to gather the sector under a single roof.
• 2024 Activity Report: Planning and strategic positioning of logistics bases were among the ministry's investment priorities.

Evaluation and Expected Impacts

• Corporate Transparency: Clarified authorization and inspection rules will reduce compliance costs for sector players.
• Investment Predictability: Logistics center criteria will provide infrastructure owners with long-term planning opportunities.
• Competitive Advantage: Current legislation will strengthen Turkey as a regional logistics hub.

Main Trends in Digital Transformation in Logistics and Prominent Innovations in 2025

The logistics sector is undergoing a digital transformation process, starting with Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm in 1959 and accelerating today with artificial intelligence, warehouse automation, and blockchain technology. We examine the prominent developments in the 2023–2025 period and expectations for the future.

History and Current Applications of AI-Powered Route Optimization

The first route planning studies began in 1959 with Dijkstra's algorithm. However, AI-based solutions based on real-time data, considering traffic and fuel consumption, have reduced logistics costs by 10–20% in the last five years and provided an improvement of up to 15% in delivery times.

Evolution of Warehouse Automation Systems and Their Prevalence in Turkey

Warehouse Management Systems (WMS), introduced in the early 2000s, evolved with smart conveyors and automated racks in the 2010s. In 2023–2024, the warehouse automation market in Turkey is growing rapidly due to the increase in e-commerce volume and rising labor costs.

• Smart Conveyors: Direct material flow with sensor and IoT data.
• Warehouse Robots: Perform pallet handling and stocking tasks autonomously.
• Automated Racking Systems: Increase stock accuracy, minimizing error rates.

Transparency with Blockchain: From Pilot Projects to Industry Standards

Pilot blockchain applications, which started in 2016–2018, have increased traceability in the supply chain by up to 60% by 2024. The immutable ledger system securely presents goods movements to all stakeholders.

• Immutable Ledger: Container entry-exit data is recorded on the blockchain.
• Stakeholder Access: Importers, distributors, and customs administrations instantly agree on common data.
• Cost Savings: A 10–20% reduction in operational costs is achieved.

2025 Technology Trends: Digital Twins and Data Analytics

In the coming period, virtual models of real-world assets will be created with digital twin solutions in warehouse and fleet management, and operational efficiency will be maximized with big data analytics and machine learning.

• Digital Twins: Scenario-based planning with virtual copies of warehouses and vehicle fleets.
• Data Analytics: Big data platforms will be used for demand forecasting and stock optimization.
• Autonomous Systems: Autonomous trucks and warehousing robots are expected to become widespread in the next 5 years.

Future Implications

• Hybrid Solutions: Integrated use of AI, blockchain, and warehouse automation will increase efficiency.
• Investment and Standards: Compliance with international standards will become critical in Turkey.
• Education and R&D: Technology-focused education programs in logistics will increase for the 2025–2030 period.

Transformation in Logistics Education: From Vocational High Schools to Digital Certificates

Logistics and supply chain education in Turkey has undergone a major transformation, starting from the first vocational high schools established in 2005 to university departments and remote certificate programs. In recent years, it has gained momentum with digital platforms and sector-education collaborations.

Historical Development

• 2005 – Mehmet Emin Horoz Anatolian Logistics Vocational High School: The foundations of vocational education in logistics were laid, addressing the need for intermediate staff.
• 2016–2021 – Proliferation of University Departments: Logistics and supply chain programs were opened at Istanbul University, Izmir University of Economics, and many other universities.
• 2021 – AKİB Foreign Trade and Logistics MTAL Protocol: Signatures were made for the establishment of new vocational high schools under the leadership of AKİB (Mediterranean Exporters' Associations).

Support for Vocational High Schools

With collaborations between the Ministry of National Education and the private sector.

• MoNE Communiqué (2023–2024): Additional training and internship support was provided to logistics students studying in Organized Industrial Zones (OIZs).
• Mercedes-Benz Türk “Star of the Future”: Increased the employment of graduates by investing in the infrastructure of vocational high schools.
• Regional Technical Support: Vocational development programs of the West Black Sea Development Agency are in effect.

Universities and Certificate Programs

Flexible certificate programs have become as prominent as academic education.

• Istanbul University (2024–2025): The “Logistics and Supply Chain Management” certificate is offered remotely and asynchronously.
• Anadolu University E-Certificate (2025): Logistics management education is among 108 different online programs.
• UTİKAD FIATA Diploma (2024): An internationally valid, examination-based diploma, special for sector professionals.
• THK University “Air Logistics”: A new program offering practical education opportunities on campus.

Interest in Digital Logistics and Supply Chain Education

Online congresses and seminars highlight digital competencies.

• Logistics Universe Digital Congress (2024): Sector professionals shared digital transformation strategies.
• LMSCM 2024: Held at Istinye University with the theme “Smart and Sustainable City Logistics.”
• TEDAR Seminars: Covered data science and AI applications with sessions on “Supply Chain and Artificial Intelligence.”

Looking to the Future

• Hybrid Education Models: Programs combining face-to-face, online, and practical internship opportunities will become widespread.
• Sector-Education Collaborations: Company-supported scholarship and internship agreements will bring the curriculum closer to the sector.
• International Accreditation: Collaborations with organizations like FIATA will increase the global validity of programs.
• Technology-Focused Curriculum: Digital logistics, artificial intelligence, and blockchain education will be at the center of the logistics curriculum.